Ten years following the UK entered into a rushed public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a advisory comes from across the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
The government and voters sleepwalked into Brexit and the similar may happen with a national vote on a unified Ireland, sparking convulsions for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the benefits and drawbacks of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to establish a fresh nation with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Structures Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the administrative systems in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly contentious and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," O’Toole remarked. "In my opinion that the governmental framework of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the political, economic and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to stir debate on the matter with a roadshow of public talks that will take them to Westminster in the coming weeks.
"What haunts everyone, or ought to concern every person, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extraordinarily divided society where people who have lost are not reconciled to losing and the people who have won don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would approve.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim this point is looming, and a organisation named pro-unification advocates has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions minimise the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there will be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language for and against unification has obscured the lack of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which may surpass that to make it possible has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few elected officials or activists want to engage with the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Centralised? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, neither author endorses unity or the existing arrangement. Each composes two pieces that seek objectivity in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument opposing it, marshalling financial and societal data, previous instances and structural examples.
Arguments encompass national emblems, taxes, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the risk of unionist unrest. The objective is to enlighten and stimulate conversation.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a debate," stated O’Toole. "Debate indicates an acknowledgement of the notion that there might be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens say they support unity but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' UK heritage.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to work out what the offer from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We seek a united Ireland and we value you'," said O’Toole.
Possibility of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it could happen abruptly. "You could have just a mad or a bad or a incompetent government minister who says: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and unionists have plausible, legitimate arguments, he said. "Somebody will win in this matter and the other side will ultimately lose but each side has got important lessons to learn from the other's positions."
Appeal for More Extensive Debate
Westminster needed to engage with the discussion, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter just as much as it is an Irish matter."
